Terence Davis had a peculiar path on his way to the NBA, In high school he was a multi-sport athlete, playing both football and basketball, but football is where he excelled. He was a highly touted wide receiver, receiving over 20 scholarships from high-major schools. “I was a 6-4 wide receiver with long arms and huge hands who could catch everything that came my way. Why wouldn’t I play football?” Davis told Chris Dortch of NBA.com. So when he committed to Ole Miss to play basketball, it shocked everybody.
Davis was a three-star recruit in basketball, the 40th ranked shooting guard in the country. He received only one scholarship from a high-major, Ole Miss. Davis’ father told him to choose basketball because it would offer more of a challenge. But after a dreadful freshman year where he played just seven minutes a game, Davis was thinking he chose the wrong sport.
Those doubts were erased the next season. During Davis’ breakout sophomore campaign, he scored 14.9 points per game, averaged 5.3 rebounds, and shot 72.3 percent from the line. From freshman afterthought to burgeoning SEC star, Davis was quickly validating his decision to pass on college football. He continued to steadily progress over the next two years. In his senior season, he shot a career-best 37.1 percent from distance and was named to the All-SEC Second Team. Thanks to his stellar senior season and impressive combine performance, he was on my radar for someone who the Raptors could pick up in the draft at 59.
As draft date neared it appeared that Davis would not drop that far, he had a killer showing in workouts rocketing up many big boards. Come draft day, however, he declined the two-way offers that would have come with being drafted in the second round instead opting to go undrafted. Davis bet on himself that he would perform well enough in the summer league to get a guaranteed contract.
He quickly got the offer he wanted. After dropping 22 points in his summer league debut, the Raptors offered him a guaranteed contract, Davis would end up in Toronto after all.
The signing of Davis has been the next in a lengthy line of stellar decisions by Masai Ujiri. Going into Orlando, the Raptors are 46-18, good for second in the East. They’ve seamlessly continued their success from last season despite losing finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, Terrence Davis is one reason why.
[u] Per 75 possessions Davis is averaging
16.3 ppg
7.1 rpg
3.5 apg
60 TS%
[u] His advanced stats are just as solid
+0.4 PIPM
+2.0 RPM
+2.6 Raptor
+5.6 On/Off Raptor
The rookie has been putting up a quality season, especially for someone who has started just two games this season.
Three-point shooting makes Davis such a good role-player for the Raptors and is the primary reason I think he will excel in Orlando. But, it is the other things that he does well that makes me think he will be an outstanding player for a long-time.
Davis has done most of his damage from beyond the arc where he has taken 54% of his shorts and is nailing them at a near 40$ rate. He primarily has been playing off-ball at the two position, next to Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, both of whom are excellent dribble-drive penetrators. So when they get to the basket and the help defense comes, the opposing team has to be exceptionally quick with their rotations, when Davis is open he is deadly. He is shooting 42% on catch and shoot three-pointers, and a scorching 49% from the corner. His three-point gravity per 75 possessions is in the 89th percentile according to bball index. This is how Davis scores many of his points…
[U] Playmaking and Finishing
While Davis plays off-ball most of the time, he has shown some potential to be at least a secondary ball-handler. Per 75 possessions, he averaged 3.5 apg, just behind fellow rookie Colby White and more than R.J. Barrett, Tyler Herro, and Jarrett Culver.
[u] His advanced passing metrics are all well above average
Assist Pts / 75 Poss- 9.7, 72nd percentile
RA Assist Pts / 75 Poss- +2.2, 85th percentile
Pot Ast / 100 passes- 18.1, 75th percentile
HV Assists / 75 Poss- 3.4, 71st percentile
Box Creation- 4.3, 77th percentile
Some of that might be a factor of playing in the Raptors system, one that is heavily ball movement-oriented and all about making the extra pass. Davis passing however deserves some credit. Out of college, he was seen as someone with the potential to be a secondary creator, and he has shown flashes throughout the season. Davis has the handle and body control to change speeds, moving defenders, and creating space for passing angles. His vision is impressive, and he has the passing ability to deliver the ball at creative angles.
Davis’ 13% drive assist rate is especially interesting, it is one of the highest rates among rookies. It is slightly off-put however because his pass rate on drives is a very high 56%, one of the highest among all players even higher than Ben Simmons.
His playmaking is something that will develop in-time, his finishing is already very good. Davis has cut out any mid-range game, taking nearly all of his field goals from three or near the rim where he is very efficient.
Davis shoots 61% within ten feet of the basket, and while he is not the best at drawing fouls Davis can finish well through contact. He also shows flashes of being able to drive downhill towards the basket, 60% of his shots around the rim are unassisted and he attempts almost ten drives per 75 possessions. In three to four years, as Davis continues to get more comfortable with the ball in his hands he will become much more of a secondary creator.
[u] Defense and Offensive Rebounding
Playing good defense as a rookie is hard, impossible even. Going from guarding college kids to the world’s best is such a monumental jump that nearly all rookies are horrific defenders. So ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus rating Davis as close to a league-average defender is a phenomenal sign.
Davis plays a lot bigger than he is, the shooting guard stands at just six foot four and weighs in at 201 pounds. Despite this, he has shown the ability to switch onto bigger defenders. Davis spends 66.4 of his time on defense against other guards, but he spends 15% of his possessions on small forwards, 11% on power forwards, and even eight percent on centers. Defensive versatility, something of growing importance is one of Davis’ strong suits.
On defense, Davis is used primarily as a secondary defender. Hardly ever guarding the opposition’s best players. On a team with as many great defenders as the Raptors have, it is not surprising. Davis spends 31% of his time guarding primary creators, followed by secondary creators and spot-up wings.
While being far from a great defender, he is already solid, and with some more time in the league; I expect him to be a well-above-average defender.
Offensive rebounding is such an undervalued skill by many fans. Often it is lumped in with defensive rebounding, which is a unique skill entirely. Being able to get an extra possession out of a missed shot is crucial, and Davis despite his size is already well above average.
His quickness and athleticism allows him to get to where the ball will be fast. Davis has an excellent feel for where the ball will be and can get there before the other team has a chance to box him out. Davis puts back an offensive rebound for a basket 67% of the time putting him in the 83rd percentile. His adjusted rebounded rate is extraordinarily high and one of the best in the league.
His offensive rebounding ability skills are heavily highlighted here…
The Raptors got an absolute steal in Terence Davis. Right now he is a good role-player, someone who can light it up from three and play solid defense. His skill set is all there for him to blossom into an all-star like player. He already is a stellar three-point shooter and can finish at the rim. Davis shows flashes of being a secondary creator, whether it be breaking down defenders and getting to the rim, or being a good passer. His defense, while already being solid, will improve as he develops. Davis’ versatility on that end of the floor is impressive and should hold up as basketball becomes more and more positionless. His offensive rebounding adds another dimension to his skill set.
Don’t be surprised if you see Terence Davis’ name in the All-Star lineup within seven years.
On The Hardwood 